Monique:Look at your reasoning.You are saying that because some people cheat on their taxes NONE are deterred by sanction from cheating on thier taxes.Because SOME don’t wear seatbelts, there are NONE who wear setabelts to protect their lives.Your reasoning is very flawed.
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Filip:I think you need to reconsider the brutalization effect.Some, particularly death penalty opponents, find that the brutalization effect is more likely than the deterrent effect. The brutalization effect finds that murders will increase because potential murderers will murder because of the example of state executions.Why would potential and active murderers be so influenced by the state in such a deep philosophical manner, revealed by brutalization, but they wouldn’t be more affected by the simple “you murder, we execute you?”Death penalty opponents make an interesting about face on this issue. They insist that criminals are so thoughtless and impulsive that they can’t be affected by the potential of negative consequences but, then, those same opponents see criminals as so contemplative that their criminal actions increase BECAUSE those criminals follow the example of the state. One might ask those opponents: “Is there any other government action which influences criminals in such a fashion?” Do criminals kidnap more BECAUSE the state increases incarceration rates? Do criminals give money to potential victims BECAUSE the state donates to needy causes?
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Perhaps the credibility gap between the US and Japan with respect to a perceived decline in US nuclear deterrence against Chinese aggression can be partially explained in this way. First, US military adventures in general have lost their credibility among the US citizenry relative to the cold war era. The Soviet Union provided a tangible immediate threat to the US. As that threat no longer exists, and Al-Qaeda hardly seems an adequate replacement to total nuclear annihilation, the people of the US are no longer motivated by the same organizing themes of military deterrence and regional hegemony. Second, our current dilemma in greater southwest Asia has served to further demobilize popular support for future military adventures, having the unintended effect of creating a pervasive cynicism among us. Aside from the messianic evangelical/fundamentalist movements of the religious right who emphasize confronting Iran, not China, the people of the US seem to be losing confidence in military might and nuclear deterrence as a necessary component for securing American interests. Third, as Mearsheimer has noted, ground invasions are necessary for subduing great powers. And, conventional wars can still be fought by great powers amidst the prospect of a nuclear confrontation, but they increase the prospects for a nuclear change when one side becomes desperate. Japanese policy makers probably grasp these dynamics, concluding that the US would be highly resistant to fighting a conventional war much less using its nukes against China to preserve an East Asian balance which the US people largely do not understand nor seem concerned with. Thus, Japan feels compelled to re-militarize and acquire its own nuclear deterrent against China.
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Perhaps the credibility gap betewen the US and Japan with respect to a perceived decline in US nuclear deterrence against Chinese aggression can be partially explained in this way. First, US military adventures in general have lost their credibility among the US citizenry relative to the cold war era. The Soviet Union provided a tangible immediate threat to the US. As that threat no longer exists, and Al-Qaeda hardly seems an adequate replacement to total nuclear annihilation, the people of the US are no longer motivated by the same organizing themes of military deterrence and regional hegemony. Second, our current dilemma in greater southwest Asia has served to further demobilize popular support for future military adventures, having the unintended effect of creating a pervasive cynicism among us. Aside from the messianic evangelical/fundamentalist movements of the religious right who emphasize confronting Iran, not China, the people of the US seem to be losing confidence in military might and nuclear deterrence as a necessary component for securing American interests. Third, as Mearsheimer has noted, ground invasions are necessary for subduing great powers. And, conventional wars can still be fought by great powers amidst the prospect of a nuclear confrontation, but they increase the prospects for a nuclear change when one side becomes desperate. Japanese policy makers probably grasp these dynamics, concluding that the US would be highly resistant to fighting a conventional war much less using its nukes against China to preserve an East Asian balance which the US people largely do not understand nor seem concerned with. Thus, Japan feels compelled to re-militarize and acquire its own nuclear deterrent against China.
Hello Luke,I think the the "no-one knows" argument is a snenonse. I, for example, do not oppose the existence of nuclear deterrents per se in this world, and agree with Dan about (for example) the argument for the American deterrent. But you say:Better to have it in case than to not anticipate a future threat. 20 years before 1939 no one would have predicted the Nazis emerging as a threat.Do you honestly believe any of the following:(i) that the primary military forces responsible for the liberation of Europe, east Asia and the western Pacific were those of the United Kingdom;(ii) that in the event of the emergence of a comparably threatening country, their primary target will be the United Kingdom rather than, say, the United States of America?(iii) that in the event of the emergence of a comparably threatening country, the defeat of that regime will be assured by the existence of the British nuclear deterrent, rather than, say, the American nuclear deterrent?(iv) that the primary security threats to the safety from direct attack of the people of the United Kingdom come from states run by rational governments like the USSR rather than from (a) stateless individuals and organizations, or (b) states so far from the UK that the UK would be most unlikely to be a target for attack (North Korea? I think they might nuke Alaska before they worry about Glasgow) and even if it were a target the delivery equipment would not be available (Pyongyang is a very long way away).I'm a multilateralist by inclination. There was a strong argument for Britain not getting rid of its nuclear weapons unilaterally during the Cold War, but the threats we face now are from bearded lunatics with briefcases full of U-235 and no state to call home.Against them, deterrence is meaningless, and there are no states left against whom our deterrent materially enhances the defence of either ourselves or of the West more broadly. It's time to bin the Bomb.
